Amazon rainforest at risk of significant transformation by mid-century, study indicates

The critical balance between human activity and the Earth's natural climate regulators is beginning to tip — and not in a good way.

Andrew Jeong reports for The Washington Post.


In short:

  • A recent study predicts that by 2050, 10% to 47% of the Amazon rainforest could undergo severe ecological changes due to deforestation and climate change, potentially transitioning into savanna grasslands.
  • The Amazon, a critical carbon sink for 65 million years, faces threats from global warming, extreme droughts, and fires, risking the release of stored carbon and accelerating global warming.
  • Researchers emphasize the urgency of maintaining "safe" ecological thresholds, including limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and reducing deforestation to below 10% to avoid catastrophic ecosystem degradation.

Key quote:

"At the end of this process, our planet will reorganize itself, find a new equilibrium... humans and other species will have to readapt to very unpleasant conditions."

— Bernardo M. Flores, lead author of the study.

Why this matters:

The Amazon's potential collapse into a degraded ecosystem not only threatens biodiversity and Indigenous communities but also diminishes its role in carbon sequestration, exacerbating global warming. The planet’s largest ecosystems could collapse faster than we thought.

A painting of a wildfire in the forest

Wildfires, permafrost melt in Canada causing even more climate change, new study shows

These climate feedback loops, where climate change triggers more greenhouse gas emissions that in turn feed into even more climate change, could add 20 to 30 per cent more warming over current estimates for this century.
A rendering of a mosquito

Climate change is shifting malaria hot spots in Africa

Historic data and predictions suggest cases will rise in East Africa and southern regions, while the threat may ease in West and Central Africa.
A smoke stack with smoke billowing out towards the sky and clouds

America’s air monitors are disappearing, along with the power to expose polluters

Community air monitoring restrictions are spreading as public networks shrink, limiting how residents’ pollution data can be used in enforcement.
Empty passageway between serve cabinets

A.I. Data Center Pollution Poses Health Threat, Former E.P.A. Officials Warn

Air pollution from gas-fired power plants to run data centers is expected to add at least $20 billion in annual health care costs by 2028, the group warns.
 Solar production panels factory.
Credit: wedmov/BigStock Photo ID: 330038794

A solar industrial complex is turning Republicans into believers

A Georgia solar-panel factory — and the jobs it provides — is making renewable energy fans out of state Republicans.

Man with hands on hips watching windmills solar panels and refinery spewing air pollution
Credit: Tom Wang/BigStock Photo ID: 64456213

More than 70% of new solar is being built in states that voted for Trump

Trump-supporting states are driving the solar boom even as Republican policies complicate its future.
Solar panel, wind turbines, and cooling towers from a power plant
Credit: jaroslavav/BigStock Photo ID: 83377346

How California is kicking its natural gas habit

Solar and batteries matter, but they’re not the only reasons for the steep decline in gas-fired electricity.
From our Newsroom
Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

Multiple Houston-area oil and gas facilities that have violated pollution laws are seeking permit renewals

One facility has emitted cancer-causing chemicals into waterways at levels up to 520% higher than legal limits.

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

Regulators are underestimating health impacts from air pollution: Study

"The reality is, we are not exposed to one chemical at a time.”

Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro speaks with the state flag and American flag behind him.

Two years into his term, has Gov. Shapiro kept his promises to regulate Pennsylvania’s fracking industry?

A new report assesses the administration’s progress and makes new recommendations

silhouette of people holding hands by a lake at sunset

An open letter from EPA staff to the American public

“We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to hold this administration accountable.”

wildfire retardants being sprayed by plane

New evidence links heavy metal pollution with wildfire retardants

“The chemical black box” that blankets wildfire-impacted areas is increasingly under scrutiny.

Stay informed: sign up for The Daily Climate newsletter
Top news on climate impacts, solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered to your inbox week days.